Catalan government crisis

Yesterday, after weeks of speculation, the regional president, Pasqual Maragall sacked all six Catalan Republican Left (ERC) ministers from the coalition government. The move, which was widely expected, led to ERC stating that it intended to remove not just its ministers, but all governmental staff who were party activists.

The reason behind ERC's removal from the tri-partit is that they have decided to vote against the Estatut (see here for more information), which they feel has been watered down so much that they can't support it. Esquerra claim that they have been double-crossed by the Spanish Socialist party (PSOE, of which Maragall is the regional leader), and that promises to uphold the Estatut as it was passed by the Catalan parliament were broken.

The Socialists argue that ERC have been obstructive and unwilling to negotiate the text of the Estatut. It is this intractability which the PSOE blame for the coalition's collapse. The PSOE, having made a new deal with the conservative opposition CiU, enraged ERC to the point where cooperation would become impossible.

A Catalan referendum on the Estatut will take place in just over a month, with the PSOE, CiU and smaller leftist groups pushing for a 'yes' vote, while ERC and (as unusual bedfellows) Spanish nationalists PP asking for the 'no'. I'm not aware of what the margin in favour needs to be in order to pass the Estatut into law but if it's anything like 50%, the 'yes' camp have a good chance of winning. If the Estatut fails in the referendum, it has the potential to seriously damage not just the Catalan Socialists, but their party comrades in government in Madrid. A 'no' vote would likely benefit ERC in the forthcoming elections - and could grant them more power than they've had in the recent coalition. That said, it would be difficult to identify just why people had voted against...

Whichever side of the fence you're on though, you must agree on one thing: ERC have so far handled this matter with a huge lack of political nouse, whereas the PSOE have been very successful in their dealings with other parties. Granted, Esquerra are obviously committed to independence for Catalonia, and felt that by agreeing to the text that is currently on the table, they would be delaying further moves in that direction for another generation. They've played a risky game, but so have the Socialists. Who wins (and I have a pretty good hunch who it'll be) will reap the rewards after June 18th. The losers will run the risk of consigning themselves to history.

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