Double election action

Two elections are approaching which will affect my life to a greater or lesser extent. The forthcoming parliamentary elections in Catalonia and the USA have the potential to change the way of life here in Barcelona to wildly differing degrees but both are important in their own way.

In the US, the hope must be that the Democrats manage to wrest control of the American parliament (Congress) and thus usher in a period of inquiry, inspection and general oversight which has been missing from the American political scene for some time now. While I'm no lawyer, and as such can't really speculate on the possibility of impeachment proceedings against Bush, I can see that a Congress which is capable of mounting committees and investigations with teeth is a heartening prospect. The establishment of a more accountable democracy in Washington DC will have an affect on how we, as westerners, are seen around the world.

In Barcelona, the talk is all about coalitions. As with last time around, ERC look as if they will be in the enviable position of kingmaker as their small share of the vote will probably be large enough to form a governing coalition with the PSC if they choose (or, of course, with CiU: the second least popular coalition option, according to a poll in yesterday's El Periódico). That said, it's important to note that ERC's support has declined significantly since 2004. Should their vote collapse, a CiU government would look more likely.

Unless the current polls are significantly wrong, I reckon that the most likely government to come out of these elections will be a left-wing coalition consisting of the PSC, ERC and probably IC-V - in other words, another 'Tripartit'. A 'Bipartit' of PSC-ERC is possible but less likely, a 'grand coalition' of CiU-PSC is likely but less palatable to me and a nationalist coalition of CiU-ERC is unlikely and would be very unpopular. The PP will never get into government here.

So for now, it's a question of 'wait and see'. The final poll results before ballots open will be interesting but I'll put a tenner on another left-wing coalition.

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October 25, 2006 | Filed Under Catalonia, Politics, Spain 

Comments

3 Responses to “Double election action”

  1. Graeme on October 25th, 2006 3:21 pm

    Welcome back! I won't bet against you on the Catalan elections, unless there is a significant change in the polls I don't think CiU can do it with just ERC support alone?

    On impeaching Bush, it might just be better to leave him where he is if the Democrats win control of Congress - it's not as if he can stand for election again - and he is not likely to be a positive help to the next candidate they choose. I doubt the Democrats have the nerve to do it anyway, they have not shown much political courage in the last few years.

  2. mike on October 26th, 2006 9:35 pm

    Don't be fooled by the polls from El Periodico. According to the CIS and other polls, the 'tripartit' has fallen to the fifth place in the list of preferred coalitions, and the one that you don't like (CiU-ERC) is in third place if I recall correctly.
    And if one thing is clear is that CiU could do it with just ERC support alone, like in 2003, but it won't probably happen since both parties hate each other (even though, they are the only ones without any official link to spanish parties). What distinguishes us, catalans, from others, e.g. bascs, is that we usually waste our time fighting among each other while the country collapses…
    Oh, well!

  3. Tom on October 29th, 2006 2:52 pm

    Mike - thanks for your comment. I've seen these polls (referring to which coalition is preferred) but I don't see what use they are. The key issue here is that the parties who choose to form a coalition don't have to pay any attention to the results of such polls because they're not binding. What will make a difference is whether Esquerra's membership agree to join with CiU.

    The reasons I have for not wanting a CiU/ERC Generalitat are pretty simple: I don't like CiU, I feel that they governed lazily and wastefully while they were in power; I don't think that an entirely nationalist government is what Catalonia needs; I'd be disappointed to see a party which insists it is 'of the left' pacting with CiU again.

    Another Tripartit, while currently an unpopular choice would represent a broader section of society and would govern successfully - just as they did during the last government.

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