Declining oil production threatens war & unrest

An interesting article from The Guardian, this. It seems that oil production did peak in 2006 after all, just as 'loony' George Monbiot predicted two years ago. As I noted previously, this isn't the first time that peak oil has been reported. But either way, it certainly looks like it has happened.

This is one of those things that probably will happen and probably will have a major effect on all our lives. By 2030, I'll be 50 and probably looking forward to several more decades of life. It's difficult to imagine a world where everything isn't made from, or transported with, oil. How will they manufacture plastics? I guess they'll have to replace them, and in the meantime, things will cost more. Is there some kind of secret vehicle propulsion technique which will be unveiled as the gas pumps get shut down? Almost certainly not. Will we be forced to reconsider nuclear power (claims about the abundance of fuel for which, I find distinctly suspicious)?

Along with climate change, peak oil and the ways in which it could affect all our lives is an issue looking large. Unlike climate change, it hasn't been addressed publicly by many people. Naturally, the two issues are inherently linked, but this doesn't mean that we can just sit around waiting for the oil to run out, and the environment will be fine. Both issues need to be tackled now, primarily with a switch to alternative energy forms and a marked improvement in energy efficiency. And as governments seem uninterested in doing much for either, we'll have to trust industry and business to solve these problems for us. Great.

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October 22, 2007 | Filed Under Politics, UK 

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One Response to “Declining oil production threatens war & unrest”

  1. Sophie on October 22nd, 2007 10:11 am

    Hi Tom,

    For a depressing view of what can happen, look there: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3091

    I was listening yesterday to a podcast about yellowcake mining in Niger, there's a rush of many nations to get hold of this ressource, it doesn't seem abundant at all. Furthermore, you need lots of fossil fuels to mine for uranium.

    Renewables won't give us as much and as easy energy as fossils, and we have only a few years to switch. The above link states that oil exports could disappear in 5 years time, because producing countries are consuming more and more without being able to increase production. As you seem to do, I don't think our societies and companies can change that much in 5 years time. "Business as usual" is so deeply ingrained…

    Meanwhile, the question might soon be "to eat or to drive ?" as the only alternative to fossil fuels supported by big agro and big business are so-called "biofuels", which are competing with food crops.
    I've already answered this question by ditching out my car in 2002, but how many people will do that? The whole society is organised on premises that might crumble in a decade or two. France still wants to build 3000km of highways in the next few years, the UK wants to build more airports…

    As you say, Great.

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