Two years back, I wondered if and when Catalonia would ‘cross the Rubicon’ and clearly position itself in contravention of Spanish law. Some sort of moment of illegality is essential in any process like this, just like during the Spanish Transition, to mark the break with one judicial and legal authority, and the beginning of a new one.

Yesterday, the two pro-independence groups in the Catalan parliament, with a majority of seats but not quite of votes, signed an agreement to present a ‘solemn declaration’ to the parliament for ratification next Monday, officially declaring the start of the formation of a new Catalan republic. Among the nine points in the declaration, the parliament will vote to approve that the Catalan institutions are no longer subject to the Spanish Constitutional Court, a tribunal it declares to be ‘illegitimate’ since its ruling against Catalonia’s statute of autonomy in 2010.

Coup d’Etât

It was Mariano Rajoy, then leader of the opposition, who went around Spain collecting millions of signatures “contra los Catalanes”, in order to apply pressure to a Constitutional Court decision. The decision to hear the case against the Estatut, described by Javier Pérez Royo in 2007 as a ‘Coup d’Etât’, was effectively the beginning of the current independence process. And it’s Mariano Rajoy’s immovable position which has precipitated yesterday’s agreement.

Rajoy has been planning for a moment of illegality for some time. Indeed, he thought he had one in last year’s 9N public consultation on independence, though that remains to be seen. This time, however, it looks more likely to stick. Which is why we had the uncharacteristically rapid response in the form of a televised statement, apparently agreed in advance with PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez.

Point of no return

So is this a point of no return? It looks like it could well be. Rajoy will now have to decide whether he treats it as a meaningless statement – “provocative”, as he has already said, but meaningless all the same. Or whether he intends to take it seriously and respond just as seriously, by calling for sanctions of some sort against Catalonia.

And what will happen if Rajoy does push to suspend autonomy? That would be a first in Spain’s current constitutional arrangement. And could it trigger a revolutionary situation in Catalonia? There are still many questions to answer.