Catalonia election results 2012 #25N
Seats in the Catalan parliament (percentage of votes in brackets)
CiU 50 (30.5%)
ERC 21(13.7)
PSC 20(14.5%)
PP 19 (13%)
ICV-EUiA 13 (9.9%)
C’s 9 (7.6%)
CUP 3 (3.5%)
Results from today’s elections: a significant drop for CiU, a better than expected result for the PSC, a boost for ERC and C’s, a potential for a CiU-ERC national bloc. It seems that people are voting for independence but not for Artur Mas and his cuts. CiU has lost support. The CUP enters the parlament for the first time. The PSC is damaged. The PP will slightly increase support. ICV-EUiA has increased a bit, but not as much as I was hoping it would. C’s have done very well. SI is out, as I predicted. The fascist PxC has failed to win a seat.
Here’s the result I predicted a couple of days ago: CiU 68, PSC 18, PP 17, ERC 15, Cs 10, others 7.
I imagined the El Mundo affair would have produced a backlash in favour of Mas, apparently quite the reverse. I thought ERC was no way as popular as the other opposition groups PSC and PP.
Instant analysis –
1. I’m pretty crap at predicting results, just as well I didn’t make a bet on it.
2. It seems that though the total independentist bloc vote is about what we all reckoned, ERC has taken a big bite out of Mas’s support. ICV also much bigger support than I imagined – I put them in with the others.
3. My consolation prize is that I correctly predicted the runner-up.
4. Highly pleased that SI has taken a dive. Never imagined PxC would get anywhere, and so it proves.
5. The total bloc vote of CiU+ERC+ICV+CUP makes 72. 72/135 = 53%
Conclusion
53% is hardly the “massive majority” that Mas was calling for. His own share of 28% looks like a dismal failure.
I think it’s basically over for now. The referendum can’t really get anywhere with those numbers. Mas won’t be able to hold his own centre-right party in a stable coalition with left parties ERC-ICV-CUP for any length of time. Unless he makes another tripartit, and that will hammer his own support.
His options for realistic action are highly limited.
I’m pleased to see CiU lose seats and ERC gain. I think your analysis will be the one shared by much of the media. But this is not a defeat for the referendum movement. It’s a defeat for Mas and CiU. The fact that ERC and CUP (and Iniciativa) have gained is evidence of support for independence in a plural sense. The idea that CiU tried to promote (absolute majority or nothing) failed and that’s a victory for the left.
But Tom,. let’s get real.
It’s all very well saying that the CiU+ERC+ICV+CUP combo gives a majority for the referendum. Apparently it adds up to 65% of the Parlament. But then there’s the day-to-day of government, and how is that going to get done with a tiny-weensy minority govt?
Any coalition or alliance will be by its ideologically-mixed nature extremely unstable. The first time cuts need to be made by Mas (in the imminent 2013 budget vote, for instance) the leftist groups will desert him.
Chances of a new tripartit of CiU+ERC+ICV – on paper the numbers look good, but how will it really work? Do you want your group to get into bed with Mas for a “national unity” tripartit?
I don’t think so many other left-wingers are eager to share in the responsibility for carrying out Rajoy/Merkel’s austerity package. None of the esquerristes I know want that to happen, and you’re the only ICV supporter I’m acquainted with.
With respect, I think you need to listen to the ICV message. The referendum and day-to-day politics are different issues. There’s absolutely no reason why ICV-EUiA or CUP needs to agree with CiU about cuts – they won’t. ERC has been pretty quiet on the ‘esquerres’ front and so I wouldn’t be surprised if they formed a pact with CiU.
The pro-referendum (CIU, ERC, IC & CUP) parties have a clear majority (64.4% of seats, 57.7% of votes) but I agree it’s probably not enough. The problem is that since a referendum would be illegal (or at least not legal) you can’t call it without the legitimacy that only a strong majority can confer. So, probably the referendum movement should put off its immediate plans of calling a referendum and continue to work towards obtaining such a majority. The game is far from over, that’s for certain. After all we already are a majority, just not big enough.
@ Tom – You’re right that I don’t know ICV programmes or culture, but I do know ERC pretty well. They haven’t abandoned left-wing opposition to cuts in social services, and are unlikely to abandon that leftism any time soon.
Now their great dilemma is this – support Mas in a stable coalition, and form part of the govt in a programmatic series of cuts, in order to gain a referendum; or support only the referendum and watch as Mas’s govt gets shot down on other issues, with new elections on the horizon.
The referendum and the day-to-day are different issues, but Mas has clearly conditioned the former on support over the latter, so in effect they become the same thing.
ERC are deeply split on this. The shadow of the Tripartit looms large over them. And the activists I know reckon that if it was a mistake to get into bed with PSC, how much more of a mistake would it be to join with a conservative group, whose dedication to “Catalanism” is highly suspect. If Mas has been hammered by the electorate for austerity cuts, they would be equally punished next time round.
As it stands, it’s not entirely clear that Mas will be able to even form any kind of government at all. New elections in February?
@Ernest – I think you’re absolutely right. Unless CiU collapses and there are new elections bringing a radical change, there’s no real way forward. The referendum is not going to happen in 2014, it’s time to regroup and think ahead to 2016. Meanwhile the key issue is whether Mas can hold any kind of power without formal alliances.
@Murph – I think that’s a good analysis. No, there will not be an ICV pact with CiU. Not one that I would vote for, anyway. And my understanding of ICV policies is that members would have to ratify something like that. It won’t happen.
The net support for referendum-friendly groups increased and the net support for anti-referendum groups decreased. So regarding the ‘mandate’ to hold a referendum, I think we’re OK. But yes, this will be difficult to achieve in a minority government situation, and yes, pacts will be tricky. So yes, I concur that it’ll be difficult to achieve.
To cheer myself up, I keep thinking about López Tena bitching after losing his seat. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer chap.
I think people had a hard time taking Artur Mas seriously about his sudden road-to-Damascus conversion to the independence cause. Everytime I saw the posters of him I was thinking “Does he think he’s Jesus or something?”.
When the whole El Mundo corruption thing came up, the damage was more about reminding people about the looting of Catalunya by Jordi Pujol and his offspring. Even if that particular report wasn’t true, people are smart enough to know that the enormous family fortune of the Pujols didn’t come from their business acumen.