Tag Archives: Parliament of Catalonia

Catalonia independence referendum: date, questions and Spanish response

As you’ll have heard by now. A referendum on Catalan independence “will be held” on November 9 2014. It will consist of two questions: “Should Catalonia be a state? And if so, should it be an independent state?”. CiU, ERC, ICV-EUiA and CUP agreed these terms. This represents a plurality of the parties in the Catalan parliament. The agreement came days before the potential collapse of the CiU government over a budget vote due next week.

The response from Rajoy was immediate: “It’s not negotiable. It won’t happen”.

Jordi Cañas of C’s (such a fitting name) maybe hinted at the unionist approach on TV3 just now: “There won’t be a referendum in November next year” he said, “there will be elections”. And as suggested here before, this is the most likely strategy of Spanish opposition to Catalan independence: deny the right to a referendum and thereby encourage the ‘other path to independence’ – elections followed by a unilateral declaration of independence. This would put Madrid in a much better position in terms of international support and negotiating power. It is, I reckon, the preferred outcome in Madrid because of how easy it would be to paint the Catalans as thoroughly antidemocratic, as well as sowing disagreement between the pro-referendum parties (Iniciativa won’t agree to a UDI as an election pledge, I shouldn’t think).

So, in short: this time next year, we’ll still be talking about what might happen.

Updated: Catalonia election results #25N

Barcelona, September 11th 2012

Catalonia election results 2012 #25N

Seats in the Catalan parliament (percentage of votes in brackets)

CiU  50 (30.5%)
ERC 21(13.7)
PSC 20(14.5%)
PP 19 (13%)
ICV-EUiA 13 (9.9%)
C’s 9 (7.6%)
CUP 3 (3.5%)

Results from today’s elections:  a significant drop for CiU, a better than expected result for the PSC, a boost for ERC and C’s, a potential for a CiU-ERC national bloc. It seems that people are voting for independence but not for Artur Mas and his cuts. CiU has lost support. The CUP enters the parlament for the first time. The PSC is damaged. The PP will slightly increase support. ICV-EUiA has increased a bit, but not as much as I was hoping it would. C’s have done very well. SI is out, as I predicted. The fascist PxC has failed to win a seat.