All posts by Tom

Elections this autumn for Catalonia

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UPDATE: the elections will be held on November 25th.

The Catalan newspaper Ara is reporting that Artur Mas is about to call early elections, likely to occur on November 18 or 25 or December 2.

Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy stated in parliament today that he doesn’t agree with the Catalan view that a new fiscal pact ought to be agreed. This was supposed to have been the subject of discussion in a meeting between Rajoy and Mas tomorrow morning in Madrid. It is believed that Mas could call the elections tomorrow, immediately after this meeting.

There is widespread expectation that these elections could take on the form of a referendum on Catalan independence from Spain. For this to happen, the governing CiU will have to form a national bloc with parties sympathetic to independence: ERC, ICV and SI. The Catalan federations of the two main Spanish parties, PP and PSOE will oppose independence, with support from Ciudadanos.

The groups in favour of independence appear to see that speed is of the essence now. They aim to benefit from the upswing in support for separatism seen at last week’s demonstration in Barcelona. They probably also fear the Spanish government invoking section 155 of the Spanish constitution, which allows for central government to establish direct rule over autonomous communities seen to be in breach of the constitution.

Does this render independence any more likely? It’s hard to say. There can be no doubt that more people here are taking the question seriously. But CiU will have to negotiate a pact with leftwing ERC and ICV to have a chance of an absolute majority. But I get the feeling that there are plenty of Catalans who might balk at the last minute, either due to the uncertainty that independence might bring or because of their dislike for voting for any CiU-led coalition.

Because of the speed with which the independence movement has gathered pace and the possible sanctioning of Catalonia’s self-government by Madrid, these elections will likely prove to be the supreme test that separatism must pass if it is going to succeed.

What do you think will happen?

What next for Catalonia? More questions for the independence movement

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If not precisely inevitable, Catalan independence now seems much more likely than it did a couple of years back when I first framed my questions for supporters and opponents of Catalan separatism.

Many of those questions remain valid. But my main focus has shifted. This reduced list should read as a demand from those leading and supporting the independence movement that they for once and for all clarify various matters that I believe worry many people currently. Because if Catalonia really will be the ‘Next State in Europe’, these matters need to be clarified now, not later.

1 – What social model will an independent Catalonia have?
While the right are currently in power, and have governed for the majority of Catalonia’s post-Franco years, there is a significant section of Catalan society that supports parties of the left. We’re deeply unhappy about the cuts that Artur Mas has made to public health, education, social assistance and public sector pay during the financial crisis. Mas has blamed these cuts on Spain’s mishandling of the national economy. Very well: if that is true, he must now guarantee to restore, improve and protect public sending and investment in the event of independence.

2 – Will you now, and forever, forgo all claims on the territories in Spain and France sometimes referred to as the Catalan Countries?
I shouldn’t need to explain the importance of this question. The only chance of success as a state depends on France’s and Spain’s recognition. That won’t happen unless you formally reject territorial claims on Rosselló, Valencia, the Franja and the Balearics.

3 – What status for non-Spanish residents in Catalonia?
OK, this is a personal one, but it affects lots of people and many businesses. Will you now guarantee our status as permanent residents? What chances for citizenship will we have?

thebadPoll: Is Catalan independence now inevitable?

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So now that the estelades have stopped waving in Diagonal and Via Laeitana, what will be the overall result of this march? Is Catalonia really a big step closer to independence now? Or is this a flash in the pan that’ll recede when the economy picks up? Do you feel that a change has happened here? Or do you reckon it’s just more of the same?

Cast your vote below or in the sidebar on the right. And as always, leave a comment below and explain your vote.

[poll id=”19″]

A march in Barcelona that surprised everyone #11S2012

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Barcelona, September 11th 2012

This blog has seen plenty of debate concerning the whole independence issue. In May, I wrote that I wasn’t sure that Catalan independence had majority support. I now believe that it does.

As of today, I’m happy to declare myself in favour of Catalan independence. (You can now put the trumpets away)

We went to Barcelona today. It took an hour to get to Via Laetana from Gràcia FGC station. The police say 1.5 million people turned out; more than the organisers expected. The PSC didn’t support it. Convergència was taken by surprise. Unió was utterly shocked. All the parties have been sidelined by a popular movement that can’t be ignored.

Today’s demonstration was a step towards Catalan independence. The largest demonstration Barcelona and Catalonia has ever seen, and unequivocally in support of independence. I find it difficult to believe that Rajoy will offer us a ‘pacte fiscal’ that does the job. When he fails to do so, I expect early elections here and a national platform in support of a referendum.

Why I will join the demonstration on September 11

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Cartell ANC

Next Tuesday, Catalonia’s national day, will see thousands of people demonstrating in Barcelona, in support of Catalan independence. I will attend and support the demo on the basis of my support for the right of people to decide: the right to self-determination, especially after a retired Spanish army officer threatened us with violence last week; and support for the Catalan language, under attack in multiple Spanish regions governed by the PP.

Not all of Catalonia’s problems would be solved by independence. Indeed, independence would probably bring about the existence of new problems we’ve not even considered yet. But that doesn’t mean it’s definitely not worth looking into. A fair distribution of the revenue generated by Catalonia seems impossible to achieve. Would we have better social cohesion and healthcare and so on if we had all the money raised here? Would my EHIC application be approved a lot faster, allowing me to get health insurance before it’s too late? It’s not a certainty but we’d be in a much better place to argue for it.

To defend the right to self-determination in the face of threats from past-it Spanish colonels strikes me as a perfectly reasonable thing to do on a Tuesday afternoon. See you in Plaça Catalunya at 18h.

What hope for Spain?

Capital, Catalonia, Politics, PP, Spain, , ,

As the crisis in capitalism deepens, the situation in which Spain finds itself seems increasingly hopeless.

Pretty much everyone I’ve spoken to about Spain recently seems agreed that Spain – and maybe the world – is approaching some sort of cataclysmic reckoning. This sentiment might well be declared a sentimental form of millennialism – after all, aren’t we rich and comfortable enough to entertain fantasies of impending doom? – were it not for the gentle crackle you can hear in the air here. This crackle, this oceanic roar heard from a great distance, is the sound of millions of people waiting for the decisive moment at which they will try once again to reclaim their rights.

Spain is fucked. And not because of Berlin or London, but because of us, the Spaniards who have done nothing to stop Spain getting fucked. While Catalans moan about motorway tolls, Asturian miners are blockading motorways with flaming barricades. And protestors are being shot by police with rubber bullets (bullets that give the police a chance to shoot you multiple times rather than just once – possibly the highest embodiment of planned obsolescence at state/capital level), and Greece never quite got the revolution that seemed so possible just a few weeks ago.

Andrea Fabra, daughter of a repulsive conservative politician from Castelló, summed up the attitude of Spain’s political class with impressive candour this week. As PM Mariano Rajoy announced higher VAT (designed to hurt the poor) and deeper cuts to the unemployment benefits system (designed to hurt the hopeless), Fabra uttered the immortal words: “Fuck ’em!”. She wasn’t talking about her colleagues in the PP who joyfully applauded as Rajoy delivered the negative prognosis. She was referring to the 25% of Spaniards who are unemployed. “Fuck ’em!”, she declared because that’s how she and her colleagues feel about Spaniards in general. If you’re not bright enough to fuck everyone else, then fuck you.

The background crackle just intensified a little. Catalonia’s conservatives, CiU, have been making themselves busy recently finding ways to criminalise protest. One assumes that pro-flag, pro-independence protest will still be officially encouraged. We’ve had two useless general strikes in two years with decent turn-outs but no effect on policy. We had millions of people marching against an illegal war and the government ignored that too. It is clear that they do not listen to argument. And when protest is derided so openly by those in power, the same people who raise a regressive tax in order to pay off crooked banks, the citizens must use other tools to make themselves heard.

Someone told me the other day that the only way we in Spain can end this cycle of corrupt parasitism is with war but that understandably, no Spaniard wanted to recreate the disaster of the 1930s. I hope and pray that this is nothing more than sentimental millennialism. But at the same time, I can’t see a way out. What hope does this country have, then?

More public money for Spain’s useless banks

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As predicted, Spain yesterday formally asked for a huge bailout to rescue its banking system. Most sources seem to agree that the sum will be about €100bn and will go directly to the banks, rather than, say, job creation. Meanwhile Spanish families who, hit by redundancies and public sector pay cuts, find trouble paying their mortgages, still get evicted without the debt being erased.

You’ll find it very difficult to take out any new credit while you’ve got an active IVA. In fact, if you want to take out more than £500, you’ll need to apply for written permission from your insolvency practitioner unless you’re using it to pay utility bills. There are also no credit check payday loans website options that offer some credit, but again better to check with your practitioner first.

Spain’s ruling PP seems utterly perplexed by everything. PM Rajoy, almost totally invisible since he won last year’s elections, is determined to push the message that the bailout comes ‘no strings attached’. Never mind that we already have seriously nasty conditions of ‘austerity’ imposed on us by the PP and the PSOE opposition, my understanding is that the Spanish state will take on the responsibility of paying the interest on this €100bn No credit must pay loan. In effect, Spain goes from a situation where public spending was absolutely fine in 2007, within EU guidelines, and so on… to the situation we have now where services, pay, investment, etc have all been slashed and still the government ends up with a growing deficit thanks to the banks.

The alternative is to allow the banks to collapse. This would be an instantly shocking blow to the Spanish economy and I’m not sure how much protection could be given to personal savings. But it would wipe the slate clean and allow us to start again. The first thing to do then would be to call in the bean counters and investigate fraud and mismanagement in every Spanish bank. Then, arrest and jail time for any banking or government official found to have acted illegally.

But the most important action that’s lacking is a total reform of the financial sector and the general economic reforms that this would imply. The idea that we might have to miss out on exaggerated profit lines and the phenomenal instability they always bring, should the financial sector up sticks and leave the Eurozone, suits me fine. They can all go and jump in the sea, as far as I’m concerned.

Click here to learn how to look up warrants.

How are things in Catalonia? Migration, Exports and Plan B

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Things in Catalonia aren’t great.

Unemployment dropped slightly during a cold April and hopefully as the tourists arrive, it will drop some more over the summer. But it’s still very high and the various cuts don’t seem to be stimulating job-creation. Someone asked me the other day if I’d thought about leaving: migrating somewhere. The answer is no: if Catalonia and Spain are to have a decent future, good, decent people need to stay here. And me, obviously. Seriously: I wouldn’t consider it for a second. Besides, I’ve booked my summer holiday: I’ve got something to look forward to.

The PP in Madrid announced a plan to get rid of the Generalitat’s ACC1Ó agency which helps Catalan businesses find new markets in other countries. The argument is that Spain’s ICEX agency already does this. The Spanish government knows very well that ICEX and ACC1Ó have agreements in place not to duplicate efforts but this is a nuance the PP neglects to mention. The Generalitat has said that ACC1Ó is sacrosanct – its work is dedicated to increasing exports, which is supposed to be the sort of thing that governments like – but we’ll see. I obviously have some personal interest in ACC1Ó remaining.

Meanwhile, the ‘Plan B‘ that Catalan commentators have been bickering about has been clarified somewhat. The newspaper Ara (subscription totally worth it: you get the supplements and everything!) had a bit yesterday explaining the process Artur Mas is likely to follow in order to force Madrid to give us more money. Part of the plan could be calling early elections (never a bad idea when opinion polls look favourable) – and organizing some sort of national coalition of the Catalanist parties, i.e. CiU, ICV, ERC, SI. Assuming they manage to beat the PP and PSC, they’d then introduce a law in the Catalan parliament which will give Catalonia the power to manage 100% of its tax revenues within Catalonia. In other words, Madrid would get sod all.

The problem with the plan is that it’s almost certainly illegal. It’s essentially an appropriation of the central government’s fiscal power. Fransesc Homs said a few days ago that by calling (and winning) an election on this issue, the Generalitat would have the moral authority to act in this way. It would be a mandate, but more importantly, it could set up the most significant confrontation between Catalonia and Spain in decades. If Spain refuses to negotiate, Catalonia will have taken a key step towards self-rule. I don’t think it’ll get that far, mind.

Not much news about Eurovegas recently. My suspicion has always been that Artur Mas doesn’t really want the giant casino complex to be built in Catalonia, but he made sure we are in the running, in order to have a negotiation chip with Madrid at some point in the future. Not much evidence to support that, unfortunately. Eurovegas is a disgusting idea and I’d rather it didn’t land anywhere in Spain.

We’re eagerly awaiting the result of the French presidential election. There is definitely some hope here that a Socialist victory could change things in Europe. I’m not so sure. It’s nice to have hope in your heart but I think we’d be better trying to force our own government to change tack, instead of hoping for someone else to do it.

And finally, Pep Guardiola has left FC Barcelona. He’s being replaced by Tito Vilanova.